State institution "Kundiiev Institute of Occupational Health of the National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine", Kyiv, Ukraine
Introduction. Labor potential – the current and projected future labor opportunities of a country, region or enterprise, characterized by the number of the working population, its professional and educational level, and other qualitative characteristics. During the war, the labor potential of Ukraine was reduced by a third. As of the beginning of 2023, up to 8 million Ukrainians were outside the country. 3 million people lived in the territories temporarily occupied from the beginning of 2022, of which approximately 1.3 million are of working age. More than 1 million citizens were mobilized and mobilized into the army and other military formations. That is, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost more than 30% of the entire workforce. Only 45–50% of the pre-war working-age population was in permanent residence.
Objective. Assess the state of labor potential, population employment and the labor market in Ukraine during the war and post-war period.
Materials and methods. Analysis of Ukraine’s population and economic activity was performed using data obtained from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Center for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Razumkov Center, operational data of personnel portals and sociological surveys, and scientific publications. The employment of the population in the labor process and demographic indicators were determined.
The results. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, after the beginning of the Russian occupation of certain regions of Ukraine, the number of employed people decreased by 4.1–4.6% compared to 2013. The highest employment rate was observed among citizens aged 40–49 (77.2%), and the lowest among people aged 60–70 (13.1%) and young people aged 15–24 (25.1%). The number of informally employed citizens aged 15–70 in 2021 was 3.1 million people, or 19.6% of all employed citizens. Among women, the share of those employed in the informal sector of the economy was 16.5%, among men – 22.4%. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the mortality rate of the Ukrainian population is one of the highest in the world and Europe (14.5–15.9 ‰ in some years). Mortality of working-age people significantly reduces the average life expectancy of men (ALP), most of which (70%) occurs between the ages of 30 and 60. In the age structure of the population, people under 14 years of age make up 13.7% of the total population, compared to 22.7% in previous years, which indicates a decrease in the reserve of labor potential in the future. The total population will decrease, almost half of it will be people over 45 years of age.
Conclusions. The size of the labor force before the war was about 17 million people. But since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has lost more than 30% of the entire labor force. In the age structure of the population, persons under 14 years of age accounted for 13.7% by 2021, which indicates a decrease in the reserve of labor potential in the future. The war exacerbated the processes of the demographic crisis due to a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality, a decrease in average life expectancy, and a negative population growth rate, which will adversely affect the reproduction of the labor potential of several subsequent generations, as was the case after the Holodomor and World War II. During wartime, the demand for labor sharply decreased due to the inability to work in combat zones, forced migration, relocation, or closure of enterprises. a decrease in demand for goods and services, problems with logistics, and uncertainty about the future. Increasing employment levels should be a central issue in post-war reconstruction, reintegration and peace processes.
Keywords: labor potential, factors of formation, reproduction of labor potential, labor and forced migration, wartime
References